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New Yorkers will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd