Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
